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North Korea's July 4th Surprise
posted Wednesday, 5 July 2006
Yesterday, Americans celebrated their 230th year as a free independent country. It was a day marked by feelings of patriotism as people took the day off from work to visit families, relax at home, or show up for the usual fireworks that mark every July the 4th. Yesterday signaled also the first time in US history that a space shuttle was launched off into space on Independence Day. The Discovery was launched successfully after days of delays caused by unfavorable weather situations. If anyone wanted to see fireworks, I guess there can be no bigger fireworks than that.
Elsewhere on the planet, another kind of fireworks were also fired. By now, everyone ought to be familiar with the news of how North Korea test-fired 6 missiles yesterday sending a flurry of diplomatic activity throughout the US, European and Asian capitals. Now, one can indeed say that security has now been threatened by North Korea’s provocative action. What does North Korea hope to get out of this? What is the World (the Security Council) going to do about North Korea’s offensive? What should the United States do? These issues have to be addressed because it now appears that the Security Council’s six-party talks (in the past) has simply not proved to be a solution neither has it yielded the desired restraint in North Korea as further diplomatic channels were being explored.
For some time now, North Korea has been making abrasive statements about her military capability—statements which have clearly not been too subtle—especially as it relates to developing long-range nuclear missiles that could possibly reach parts of the United States. The Taepodong-2 long range missile that was test-fired yesterday, as well as other short and intermediate range missiles was North Korea’s way of trying to remind the US and the World that indeed, it possessed the ability to make good on a missile threat. However, the North Koreans may not have done themselves a huge favor if they imagined that this provocative action could now force the US and the World to accept North Korea’s demands. We shall wait to see what the major actors involved in this new drama will do.
North Korea must have watched with cloaked verve as the UN Security Council—a body alienated by reactionary partisan interests—proved utterly incapable of sending a strong united message that it would not tolerate Iran’s shabbily-concealed efforts at nuclear enrichment. Iran is blessed with oil (a very important bargaining chip), so countries like Russia and China with emerging huge demands for oil can be easily influenced by Iran to support their verbal and policy-based belligerence against the US—their main opposition. Furthermore, Iran has a favorable trade policy with these countries so it can always count on the fact that these countries will oppose any Security Council call for some degree of economic sanctions if not military action.
Moreover, we cannot discount the age-old rivalry between Communism and Capitalism. It is therefore, not altogether surprising that Iran has continued to thumb her nose at the United Nations. All that the ideologically divided UN was able to do was to issue a presidential statement asking Iran to desist from her nuclear ambitions. A non-starter totally incapable of registering the displeasure and disapproval of the UN is perhaps the best way of characterizing this move. Besides, other countries have offered to assist in providing Iran with industrial nuclear power if that was really Iran’s aim. Till date, Iran has not agreed to forgo her nuclear ambitions and there does not seem to be much the UN can do about that.
One will not be too far from the truth therefore if one concludes that North Korea may now be borrowing a page from the Iranians. They must have reasoned that Russia and China will support them or at least not be prevailed upon to take punitive actions on them. Secondly, they must have also reasoned that with the US bogged down in Iraq there was little or no chance of any military repercussions. Thirdly, they must have also calculated that this action in concert with Iran’s current agitations will collectively prove too difficult for the Security Council to handle. Lastly, they must have desired to put Japan and South Korea (2 countries which share good relationship with the US) on high alert to force the US to accede to their demands. Unfortunately, unlike Iran, North Korea does not have that great bargaining chip called oil. As a matter of fact, North Korea thrives largely on economic aid provided by her neighboring states. Her method of generating revenue by selling missiles to Africa has not been very profitable to say the least. Consequently, North Korea seeks to bully the world, especially the United States into entering an agreement where the US will supply them with much-needed economic relief in return for a pledge to abstain from needlessly overheating the polity with their nuclear missile tests. If you must recall, the United States once entered this agreement during the Clinton era and as we all know, the North Koreans never kept their end of the deal.
Whatever the case may be, people all over the world (especially those in China, North Korea, South Korea and Japan) must start looking for lasting solutions to the new and emerging threat from Pyongyang. As things stand now, the six-party talks seem dead. China shares a border with North Korea and is therefore understandably wary of the backlash that an economic sanction is going to present from thousands of migrating North Koreans. Besides, it does not want to invite the ire of a frustrated dictator who might now decide to disperse his missiles in a random uncoordinated fashion. As for South Korea, her rapprochement with North Korea has not lulled her into a false sense of security. The truth is that since the US has a diplomatic understanding with South Korea—even to the point of having bases there—in the case of any serious hostilities, North Korea will not hesitate to lob missiles into South Korea. When we talk about Japan, we also find out that Japan has enough to worry about. The Taepodong-1 missile test-fired in 1998 flew over Japan, so it is evident that North Korea has missiles that could reach Japan. Japan happens to be economically and militarily aligned with the US, so if North Korea’s provocations snowball into a military conflict, her geographical location makes Japan a very easy target for the combined assault from North Korea, China and Russia.
In painting these grave scenarios, my principal aim is to impress on the watching world, the catastrophic consequences that the tergiversations of the actors in this unfolding drama could necessitate. While no one is openly advocating a resort to violence, the concerned nations ought at this point to seriously begin a discussion on how best to check this latest round of provocation from North Korea. Apparently, waiting for the US to come and mediate, or rather to shoulder the burden of assuaging or putting North Korea in check is simply being unrealistic. Since North Korea has decided to test the patience of her neighbors, I will not be surprised if China and Russia express some condemnation for North Korea’s needlessly confrontational action. I will not be surprised if South Korea and Japan slap some form of economic sanctions on North Korea for this pig-headed move. What I will like to see however is a combined effort from the UN general assembly and from the Security Council in particular (all members speaking with one voice) to drag North Korea to the path of reason. North Korea may have warned that it would perceive economic sanctions as a declaration of war, but realistically this country cannot constantly continue to threaten the relative peace of the Korean Peninsula into chaos—not without Russian or Chinese support.
Finally, I have to say that I cannot fault US’ measured response on this issue. In a way, the war in Iraq has had a humbling influence on George Bush’s administration and as a result I do not expect to hear veiled or apparent threats regarding this issue. The facts show that North Korea’s military capability might have been slightly exaggerated. The Taepodong-2 long-range missile test-fired yesterday was a failure. It fell into the Sea of Japan miles away from the Japanese coast. And there is no way to assert that the inability of that missile to cross Japan (least of all to get close to Alaska or California) was due to any prior manipulation of the North Koreans. The US’s policy of refusing to hold direct talks with Pyongyang is to me, a very sound one. The US should keep pushing the nations directly affected by North Korea’s actions to actively pursue a path for that country’s nuclear disarmament or non-proliferation. Heck, if they persist in developing their nuclear arsenal, that’s their business, but they must not threaten the fragile peace in this corner of the world with these random tests. As US diplomats and her partners in other Asian and European cities scurry around for solutions, they should never forget that the goodwill of the majority of people on the global scene is on their side; global disapproval as you can imagine is directed at Kim Jong IL’s incipient madness.
Leave your comments here (2)
1. kevin g left...
Wednesday, 5 July 2006 1:43 pm
I'm releived as to what the US response has been as of yet. I do fear that
North Korea and Iran are acting like children testing boundaries, and am
scared as to how far they will push!
2. colberg left...
Saturday, 4 November 2006 8:47 am
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