Swinging Through South Carolina..

You need no soothsayer to realize that the mad jostle for the presidency of the United States has gotten considerably fiercer and more passionate. Yes, it has officially kicked into high gear. Wherever you care to look—on television, radio, newspapers, blogs, etc—you'll read or hear an endless stream of analysis and opinions on what the presidential candidates represent or do not represent; and who is best suited for the job. For many people, making the final choice is not going to be easy at all. Why? In each party, the candidates are terribly close to each other policy-wise, so voters will find themselves struggling between two or more clear choices. Therefore, while the individual stances of these candidates on matters of policy is worthy of intense scrutiny, the victory in this titanic battle for the hearts of the Republican and the Democratic Parties will ultimately hinge on additional circumstantial variables. Nowhere is this cyclonic tale of circumstantial spin and counter rhetoric as poignant and as forceful as in the Democratic Party.

In the Democratic Party, of the 8 or 9 presidential candidates only 3 now remain. The others have bowed out not only because they do not have the finances to continue the race, but also because they may have felt that their candidacy did not garner as much excitement as they had hoped for. Their paltry returns in the primaries held in Iowa and New Hampshire may have ultimately informed their decision to quit. Be that as it may, the 3 candidates remaining (Clinton, Obama and Edwards) are locked in a very bitter feud—a feud so deep and intense that by the end of the nomination exercise, after witnessing the polarizing nastiness of the campaign, many democrats may simply become sick to their stomachs. Yes, it certainly looks, although the candidates strenuously deny it, that Gender and Race will play huge roles in this campaign. Hillary Clinton, will ostensibly be the first woman to become the president of the United States if she wins the general elections on November 2; likewise, Barack Obama will be the first African-American to become the president of the United States. For each of these two candidates to get that choice however, they'll have to emerge the winner of the democratic presidential nomination process. You cannot count Edwards out either. He is currently running a strong third; plus he has the finances to go on.

It is not surprising therefore that the campaigns are already turning negative. I'll continue to watch the events carefully.

Since Hillary Clinton's victory in New Hampshire, a lot of people have been analyzing and cross-analyzing the bizarre turn of events. The polls had previously shown Obama leading amongst the voters. Suddenly, on the night before the election, Hillary was asked a question. In answering that question, she came very close to tears and showed a rare side of her which had hitherto been unseen. The pictures resonated with the women voters in New Hampshire and they marched down to give her the victory. Now, whether the emotions/tears were real or a masterful political ploy, I cannot tell. However, it yielded results. It has gone down as another political trick for which the Clinton machine is famous. She discovered that appealing to women's base instincts by striking the image of the persecuted female in a male-dominated playground stirred up memories or elicited responses which had great affinity for many New Hampshire women. In essence, by ramping up her appeal to the sensibilities of women, she hopes to gain the necessary momentum to carry other states. It remains to be seen how this strategy would work for her in South Carolina and beyond.

Despite Obama's big win in Iowa, Obama has been heavily neglected by many visible black personalities. Perhaps, the irony is that Obama's meteoric rise and his huge success so far has been because he is perceived rightly or wrongly as distinct and far removed from the divisive and antagonistic politics embodied by the likes of Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson. Perhaps, because the black elite have decidedly stayed away from him, it has given real weight to Obama's posture as the candidate who will transcend race and other familiar stereotypes/biases to unite the country and move the nation ahead. At any rate, South Carolina has a huge black electorate (about 40-50%), and it goes without saying that he would like to win the overwhelming majority of the black vote. It is for that reason that I am not surprised to read or hear that the Obama campaign has started highlighting the possibly unfortunate or condescending remarks made by the Clintons in New Hampshire. If these purported anti-Obama attacks gain traction, and the Clintons are perceived to have unjustly tarnished the name and reputation of Dr Martin Luther King in a bid to undermine Obama, expect a backlash against Hillary Clinton: even though the Clintons have long enjoyed a history of positive relationship with African-Americans.

Nevertheless, the South plays a huge role in American politics. With the exception of Ronald Reagan, the past 5 presidents have come from the South. John Edwards is ostensibly from the south (he is from North Carolina). He also has a populist anti-Corporate-Interests message. Since the primordial issues of gender and race can no longer be summarily dismissed, it will be unwise to think that Edwards (being the only white Pentecostal male activist remaining and as such, very much like all the white presidents of the past) is politically dead. Indeed, I will not be surprised if contrary to the expectations of the familiar press, John Edwards emerges the winner in South Carolina on January 26. After all, since the pollsters got it incredibly wrong in New Hampshire, who says they cannot get it wrong again? At any rate, John Edwards needs a win in either Michigan (Jan 15) or Nevada (January 19). If he doesn't win in either of these two places, and loses in South Carolina on the 26^th of this month, its hard to see him continuing in the race.

If you fancy yourself braver than many shy-faced pundits, who do you think will win in the Michigan primaries?

tags: 2008 presidential primaries  hillary clinton  barack obama  john edwards  gender  race  michigan  new hampshire  nevada  iowa  

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