Caucus Countdown!

By this time tomorrow, we'll know (or be very close to knowing) who will win Iowa for the Democrats and the Republicans. The Iowa caucus is the very first major electoral event for the nomination of the President. As you can guess, there is a serious final push on the part of the presidential hopefuls to grab a majority of the delegate votes tomorrow. Wow, it's been a wonderful ride.

Who do you think is going to win the Iowa caucus showdown?

For the Republicans, polls are indicating that it is going to be a dead heat between Huckabee and Romney. I must confess, I never thought that Huckabee will eventually emerge a strong contender. For the longest time, the only names we heard from the media pundits were Giuliani, McCain and to a lesser degree, Romney. Isn't it amazing that the first two names are conspicuous non-factors at this point of the race? Perhaps, in other caucuses, they'll reappear and take center stage. It only goes to show that with presidential elections, one really cannot hang one's hopes on the effusions of the American punditocracy. Why? The slightest event, happening a few days/hours from the actual elections, is enough to topple popular opinion and force a dramatic change of votes!

A few weeks ago, Huckabee shot into the limelight and became the favorite to win the Iowa caucus. He was very folksy, very approachable and filled with the traditional values that resonate with a majority of Iowa voters. I began to think he was a virtual shoo-in as far as this election was concerned. Strangely, with a few days left to go, Romney has surged and is practically challenging Huckabee for the victory—no thanks to a relentless barrage of attack ads. We'll see whether Huckabee's decision to run a positive campaign yields fruit by this time tomorrow. If Romney does indeed win Iowa, I suppose it merely goes to reinforce the lethal efficiency of hard-punching negative attack ads. It could set a precedent for the rest of the campaign cycle till November 2 comes around.

With the democrats, anything really can happen. Obama seems to be the favorite to win but you really cannot neglect Clinton or Edwards. I foresee a situation in which Obama appears to take the lead during the early hours of the vote count, but dramatically finishing second place by the time the exercise is complete. Whatever the case may be, I think it is in Obama's best interest to win this caucus. As far as other caucuses are concerned, Clinton already seems poised to win. If he loses Iowa, the momentum will shift greatly against him. We are less than 24 hours away and I can tell you this: I expect some surprises!

tags: iowa  iowa caucus  clinton  obama  huckabee  romney  giuliani  edwards  republicans  democrats  

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